Outputs - UK
The Construction Skills Network (CSN) report shows that the UK economy and the construction industry are looking at an extended recovery period, with construction output in 2016 predicted to be only 95% of its 2007 peak. Employment will decline in the early part of the forecast period, but will start to grow again in 2014 to reach just under 2.6 million by 2016. However in the short terms, output is predicted to fall by 3% in 2012.
Five regions/devolved nations are expected to out-perform the UK average in construction output terms over the five years to 2016 – the East of England (2.9%), Greater London (2.5%), the South East (2.2%), the South West (2.2%) and Northern Ireland (2.1%) – while Wales and Scotland should see growth close to the UK average (1.4%). Two regions are predicted to experience annual average output declines over the forecast period, the North West (-0.9%) and the West Midlands (-1.1%).
Private housing, and the industrial and commercial sectors will continue to be the main drivers for the industry over the next five years, with private housing and industrial continuing to grow at more than 4%, although commercial will now drop to just below 4%. In contrast public housing and public non-housing will continue to contract at -6.3% and -9.1% respectively.
Energy and the environment will continue to be key considerations for the industry, with the UK due to lose around 25% of its energy capacity over the next 10 years. This will represent a significant challenge for the construction industry. It is over 25 years since we saw the last nuclear power station built in the UK and carbon-zero new build will require different and innovative methods of construction.